Distribution and Analysis of the Global Two-Wheeler Market


Global sales of electric two-wheelers are rebounding following the COVID-19 pandemic, signaling a gradual recovery and promising growth in the industry’s electrification. Reports suggest that by 2027, the global roads could witness over 100 million new electric two-wheelers in circulation, marking a substantial shift in the market landscape.

Distribution and Analysis of the Global Two-Wheeler Market

As of 2022, the global ownership of two- and three-wheeled vehicles is estimated at 292.4 million, with significant concentrations observed in China and India. Despite this, a surge in sales has been noted in African nations, while Indonesia and Vietnam also boast considerable numbers of two- and three-wheelers.

China stands out as a leader, capturing 49% of the global electric vehicle market in 2022 and maintaining dominance in both volume sales and vehicle electrification. This early foothold in the battery supply chain and robust manufacturing has fortified China’s position in the industry.

India’s market showcased 15 million units sold in 2022, marking an increase from previous years, with a projected 5% accounting for electric vehicles. Government incentives like the $3.5 billion production-linked incentive (PLI) aim to boost electric vehicle production, reducing reliance on Chinese imports by fostering local manufacturing.

In Vietnam, established industry giants like Honda and Yamaha face a declining market share, challenged by local electric vehicle startups such as Vinfast, Pega, Anbico, DK Bike, and Detech.

Global Trends and Forecasts in Two-Wheeler Sales

Anticipated growth in electric two-wheelers is predicted in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, with India remaining a significant driver in three-wheeler demand. Other regions like South America and Africa are expected to import vehicles from China and Southeast Asia while gradually establishing local manufacturing.

However, colder climates and a preference for car ownership may limit electric two-wheeler demand in Europe, North America, Australia, and New Zealand. Nevertheless, local companies in these regions are making strides in the electric bike segment, catering to urban commuting trends.

The transition from lead-acid batteries to cost-effective lithium batteries like lithium iron phosphate (LFP) is poised to reduce electric vehicle prices. Moreover, the arrival of sodium-ion batteries later this decade is expected to further drive price reductions, enhancing demand.

Battery swapping stations, pioneered by top Chinese manufacturers like RACEnergy and GOGORO, are addressing range limitations and battery sizes, boosting their role in the market.

Future Battery Demand and Sustainability

As lithium battery prices decrease, lithium iron phosphate batteries are projected to supersede lead-acid batteries in most applications. Sodium batteries are also expected to emerge as formidable competitors in a decade as production scales up and costs decline.

The push toward renewable energy sources in India and China, despite their reliance on coal-fired power, is promising. Investments in solar and wind power installations indicate a concerted effort to develop an ecosystem conducive to the proliferation of electric two-wheelers.

The collective efforts to promote the adoption of two-wheeled electric vehicles toward a scale of 100 million sales are indicative of an evolving landscape and a commitment to sustainable mobility.

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